- The campaign for the 2012 presidential election is in full swing – probably earlier than ever before in American history. There are currently eight announced candidates for the Republican nomination with a few others presumably considering entering the race. As of the writing of this article, three of the Republican hopefuls are widely considered as having a serious chance of winning the Republican nomination: Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, Governor Rich Perry of Texas and Representative Michelle Bachmann. Some of the remaining five candidates are undoubtedly running for vice – president.
The Electoral College
An analysis of the electoral college reveals a decided advantage to the President. The author has divided all the states into three groups. Group A consists of deeply blue states – primarily the northeast, the industrial mid – west and the west coast – that Senator Obama won by double digits in 2008. Group B is comprised of ruby red states that Senator McCain won easily in 2008. Group C contains states that were competitive in 2008 and are expected to be competitive in 2012 such as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, et.al.
The good news for the President is that the Group A has a total of 251 electoral votes – with 270 required for victory – while Group B only contains 154 electoral votes. The 11 states in Group C contain 133 electoral votes. Assuming the President wins all the states in Groups A, he only has to capture states with a total of 19 electoral votes from Column C. Florida alone would accomplish that as would Ohio and any other purple state as well as many other combinations.
The Economy
The primary reason for the pessimistic evaluation of President Obama’s re–election chances is the dismal state of the American economy. With an unemployment rate of 9.1 percent and the majority of Americans believing the country is still in a recession, an incumbent president seeking re – election is usually in deep trouble. With the election over a year away, there are some encouraging signs for the President – specifically:
- The economy is expected to improve in 2012.
- Polls indicate that the American public blames President George W. Bush and the Republican Congress for the poor economy more than they do the President.
- The President has suggested a long list of proposals designed to create jobs. If enacted, the economy should improve. If the Republicans block passage, they will take the blame.
The Republican Standard Bearer
The Republican nominee will not be known until the spring of 2012 at the earliest but some important factors are known. The President's opponent will not be a heavyweight and will have weaknesses that can be exploited by Democratic advertisements. For example, if Governor Romney is the nominee, the Democrats could emphasize his fllip - flopping on every issue. If the candidate is an extreme right - winger like Michelle Bachmann or Rich Perry, their extremesm can be attacked.
The Debates
When Senator Obama defeated Senator McCain in the 2008 presidential race, one of the chief reasons was his success in the three debates. In 2012, the Republican standard bearer will have to debate the President three times. It is the humble opinion of the author that any of the current candidates for the Republican nomination will have great difficulty in debating the incumbent president.
In summary, the Republicans would be quite premature in celebrating a 2012 presidential victory.
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010
Raymond Spungin - I have analyzed the New York City metropolitan area for 33 years professionally. I was the author of many widely - read economic reports. ...
